Central Park at night

The state of New York saw its first drop in seven-day average cases yesterday, January 12th. The daily case average went from 6,464 on the last day of November, to 74,582 on January 11th. Yesterday (1/12) saw the seven day average decline just over 4% to 71,590. This was the first time in well over a month that the average daily case number has declined.

We can expect the average case number to start dropping over the next week. While this one day drop my indicate a lapse in reporting or testing capabilities, the fact that over 10% of New York state is considered an active case is a mathematically unsustainable portion of the population. Hopefully this will make the New York case nosedive steeper than the one in South Africa. That country reached its peak daily average on December 17th (23,437), they recorded a drop of over 25% within only 5 days (17439). The daily average was down by nearly two thirds on New Year’s Day (8592).

While there are many factors that will impact a steady drop in daily cases, we are seeing encouraging numbers in New York as the case average line has been leveling off over the last several days.

Update 1/17/22 We have seen a decrease in daily New York state Covid cases of over 26% in the last 5 days. The seven day average fell from 74,582 on January 11th, to 55,154 on January 16th. This five day fall is nearly identical to what we saw in South Africa, and the rest of the United States is beginning to see a sharp decrease as well. We don’t know what impact a possible lack of testing capabilities may have, but the case numbers in many states are sharply dropping. The omicron variant has likely accelerated the end of the Covid-19 pandemic. National (USA) cases are down 15% in just the last 72 hours.

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